The Index of Leading Economic Indicators is a vital tool used to forecast the direction of the economy. In October, it fell, and The Conference Board has warned that this could signal a recession on the horizon. However, despite falling for 19 months without any recession occurring, many economists have been adjusting their forecasts.

One such economist is Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board, who believes that consumer spending has been much stronger than expected. While she still predicts a recession early next year, if it happens, it will likely be short. This is because there hasn’t been a significant decline in manufacturing or the housing market.

U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics no longer predicts a recession for this month but believes unemployment will increase and labor conditions will begin to soften. He now thinks a soft landing is more likely and is willing to update his forecasts if the economic data continues to surprise him.

Despite all these economic changes, Marketplace remains committed to providing accurate and accessible news that keeps people informed. To continue doing so, the show relies on financial support from listeners like you. A small monthly donation can help keep Marketplace reporting on the news that matters most.